Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, predicted the Bitcoin (BTC) price using the so-called “Electricity” model.
As everyone knows, to create Bitcoin using electrical and semiconductor asics chips, a “difficult” process must be overcome. These chips are very valuable products that they compete with other industries. So Rubia argues that at a certain point in global energy consumption, market forces will make the energy allocation to Bitcoin mining less desirable than other activities, so it sets a limit. The famous name uses the following expressions:
“As other energy-intensive commodities such as steel or aluminum are in greater demand than additional units of the cryptocurrency, the relative appeal of Bitcoin decreases. Then the upper price limit is reached. “
According to the economist, this forecast corresponds to about 2% of global energy consumption, which gives Bitcoin a price of $ 100,000.
Generally, the Electricity model is something that has always been used as a hard base or crude price assessment, especially in bear markets, as does the relationship between energy and price changes due to halving, as Rubia said. As the mining reward has halved, 2% of the current global supply will give Bitcoin a base of $ 200,000 – or an upper limit in Rubin’s view – within three years. Thus, it seems possible to reach 1 million dollars in 2030.